MORE THAN A SCOREBOARD.
Play The Numbers is an independent rugby league analytics project built to turn NRL results and player statistics into clear, testable insights.
PTN Power
The team model blends season-long scoring strength, recent form and win rate. Ratings are centred around 75 so teams can be compared on one scale.
Match forecasts
Each matchup compares the teams' underlying PTN strength then applies a 3.5-point home-field adjustment. Expected margin is converted to a win probability using a logistic curve.
Player analytics
Player pages separate role-specific production into scoring, creation, running, kicking, defence and involvement. Raw statistics come from official NRL player profiles, while any per-game figures are calculated by PTN.
Transparency first
The site labels data snapshots and explains what a ranking includes. An incomplete player profile set is never presented as a complete league-wide leaderboard.
How PTN Power is built
Season net scoring strength, 55%: average points differential per game over the current season.
Recent form, 30%: average match margin across the team's five most recent results in the current data snapshot.
Win rate, 15%: a smaller results component so the rating does not rely only on points differential.
Attack rating: points scored per game relative to the league average.
Defence rating: points allowed per game relative to the league average, so conceding fewer points produces a higher rating.
Forecast: the difference between the two teams' underlying model strength plus the home-field adjustment.
What a player profile includes
Depending on role and availability, profiles can include appearances, tries, goals, try assists, line breaks, line-break assists, tackle breaks, kicking metres, forced dropouts, offloads, receipts, tackles, missed tackles, running metres, post-contact metres and fantasy production.
PTN also calculates simple rates such as try involvements per game, tackles per game, receipts per game and tackle-break rate. These are descriptive measures, not an all-position player rating.
What still needs stronger data
The current team forecast does not yet contain a complete opponent-adjusted strength-of-schedule layer, named team-list adjustments, injuries, weather, travel load or market information. Those factors should only be added when they can be sourced consistently and backtested.
The player database is a verified profile set rather than every contracted NRL player. The site says so explicitly anywhere a ranking uses that subset.
Team model snapshot checked 24 August 2026. Player profile snapshot checked 24 August 2026. Play The Numbers is independent and is not affiliated with the NRL or any club.