The goal
PTN Power is designed to answer a simple question: how strong does a team look right now, independent of its ladder position? The ladder records results. A power rating tries to describe underlying team strength.
The current model blends season-long scoring strength with recent performance and win rate. That gives PTN a stable baseline without allowing one hot or poor week to completely rewrite a team’s rating.
What goes into the rating
The model deliberately separates broad team strength from the match-specific prediction layer.
- Season scoring differential provides the largest base signal.
- Recent five-game margin adds a form adjustment.
- Win rate supplies a smaller results-based component.
- Attack, defence and form are also displayed separately so the headline number can be unpacked.
What PTN Power does not know yet
A strong rating can still be wrong about a specific match. Team lists, injuries, travel, venue effects, weather and opponent-adjusted schedule strength can all change the real probability on game day.
That is why PTN publishes the underlying components and model limitations rather than presenting a percentage as certainty.
Where PTN uses official NRL statistics, the raw inputs are identified as source data. Ratings, percentiles, model probabilities and interpretation are Play The Numbers calculations.